Bitcoin (BTC) crashed again. He always has and always will be. This time seems pretty wild and it was caused by China banning bitcoin, no ifs, no buts. Before its ban, it was about shutting down peripheral activities, leaving Bitcoin open for transactions. Now, a bitcoin transaction is prohibited.

I firmly believe that we are the last to hear from us. News travels fast, but when you’re at the base of the pyramid, you don’t learn anything until it’s happened. It is well known that stock indexes react to what the beehive mind thinks a year will look like. Nowadays, with interest rates close to zero, that time horizon could be even further away, because ultimately all adult investments are tied to yield, and the yield is what governments pay more. a risk premium.

But let’s forget the theory.

In my book, bitcoin has zoomed in due to halving and reduced supply and constant demand. It went up and the FOMO institutions came in and took it from a retail peak of around $ 38,000 to $ 65,000.

That was it and it crashed and it would’ve crashed into the $ 10,000, but something happened. That something was Afghanistan and the current social repression in China. The fleeing Afghans invested much of their money in BTC and the corrupt had a lot to hide. Then the crackdown from China got to ‘we’re going to ban bitcoin’ and all of their spicy money poured in before it was illegal and very difficult to do.

Remember that the moment you trade fiat for bitcoin it leaves the country you are in and is available everywhere just like fiat is not. You can waltz naked in an airport, and your fortune awaits wherever you land.

Remember that the gaming industry is repressed in Macao and billionaires have the right to gamble. When you know that the hammer might be going to fall, you are going to be parking a lot in crypto. So the crypto is gone.

Now that this door is closed, or at least made small and difficult to explain why you went through it after the ban. Afghanistan has had its day and bitcoin is now a dead or lame duck in its largest market. It’s bearish.

Here is the table for you to follow the above:

What next?

Seems plausible to me like a big bear. Bitcoin is quite capable of swaying and it will react to disasters and the black swan, going vertical. I even put an uptrend on the chart for the uptrend to be reflected, but I didn’t expect it, although the last time I did it the price went up straight into this vector .

So $ 20,000 seems very likely to me. China out of public for crypto is a huge negative as China has been a crypto powerhouse so far. However, not many people are going to risk a rehab trip to play crypto and that will be a huge drag. Add to that regulators attacking like a school of barracudas in the US and elsewhere and it’s hard to see bitcoin as a bullish outlook for a while.

But it only takes a black swan to change that image, but you should never bet on any of them.

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