BY: WEATHER TEAM | BocaNewsNow.com
BOCA RATON, FL (BocaNewsNow.com) (Copyright © 2021 MetroDesk Media, LLC) – Major Hurricane Larry continues on its way to the east coast, with no immediate signs of returning east. While several unofficial spaghetti designs suggest this will happen, the National Hurricane Center is focused on its current path. Bermuda and the Bahamas could experience life-threatening swells in the coming days.
Here’s the morning update from the National Hurricane Center:
Larry’s strengthening trend seems to have stopped for now.
The hurricane has generally changed little in recent years
hours with the inner core still quite symmetrical, although the cloud tops
are the coldest south of the jagged eye. The outer bands are also
quite distinct, especially south of the center. The last
Dvorak’s estimates still vary from 90 to 110 kt, and based on
data, the initial intensity is maintained at 100 kt.
The hurricane is moving west-northwest, or 295 degrees, at 14
kt. Larry should continue to move west-northwest to
to the northwest over the next few days as it remains headed by a
subtropical ridge to its northeast. In the middle of next week, a
a north-northwest turn is expected when the hurricane reaches
the western outskirts of the ridge. The models are in good enough
agreement, and the NHC trajectory forecast is quite close to the HCCA
and TVCA consensus aids. Based on these predictions, Larry should
cross the central Atlantic in the next
days and approach Bermuda by the end of the forecast period.
Larry should remain in generally favorable conditions for
strengthening over the next few days, with an increase in OHS
along the path of the storm and the vertical wind shear remaining sufficiently
moo. Models suggest there may be an increase in shear
start of next week, and that combined with a little drier and more
stable air should stop the tendency to strengthen and possibly cause some
weakening. It should be noted that eye wall replacement cycles are a
possibility at some point during the forecast period, and these may
cause intensity fluctuations that are difficult to predict.
Regardless of the details, Larry should remain a
hurricane over the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast
is just an update of the previous one and is near the high end of
the orientation model.
Large ocean swells generated by the growing Larry wind farm
should reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, then
extend west to parts of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas,
and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. These swells could cause
potentially fatal rip currents and high surf conditions. Big
swell is also expected to spread to the east coast of the United States
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04 / 0900Z 16.3N 44.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 04 / 1800Z 17.2N 46.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 05 / 0600Z 18.4N 48.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 05 / 1800Z 19.7N 50.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 06 / 0600Z 21.0N 52.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 06 / 1800Z 22.0N 54.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 07 / 0600Z 23.3N 56.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 08 / 0600Z 26.1N 59.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 09 / 0600Z 30.6N 62.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
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